The Threat of Dengue Fever - Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean (Anthony Chen, Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Jamaica and Samuel Rawlins, Caribbean Epidemiology Centre)

Research has revealed that the occurrence of dengue fever is sensitive to temperature increase and rainfall; thus projections of future climate change and associated changes in the hydrological cycle are therefore cause for serious concern. The starting point of this project will be the construction of climate and epidemiological databases of past and present climate and dengue indicators for the Caribbean region. Based on these databases, retrospective and prospective studies will be undertaken to determine epidemiological patterns of dengue fever and its vectors in relation to climate. Future projections of climate for the Caribbean will be downscaled from model outputs using SRES emission scenarios. These projections together with (i) relevant socio-economic information and (ii) knowledge gathered from the database analyses will form the basis for an analysis of impacts and adaptation strategies for climate change induced dengue. A pilot project will be designed for Jamaica to implement an integrated system capable of monitoring vector and disease, of forecasting climate and dengue incidence, and of undertaking diagnostics and adaptation applications for the near term (next 10 years). Adaptation strategies for the longer term will be evaluated based on knowledge gained during the project and experience gained during the pilot project.

Countries and sectors: All 21 Caribbean Epidemiology Centre Member Countries will be included for general observations, but 4 countries – Jamaica, Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago and St. Kitts – will be targeted for specific study. Human health and disease.