Impact of Global Change on the Coastal Areas of the Rio De La Plata: Sea Level Rise and Meteorological Effects (Vicente Barros, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, University of Buenos Aires, Argentina)

This project will develop future scenarios, crossing time every 20 years, of the direct impact of the sea level rise on the coastal areas of the Rio de la Plata with specific attention to enhanced tidal flooding provoked by storms events. Sea level scenarios will be used as input for the studies and will be taken from the IPCC Third Assessment Report. The enhancement of the tidal floods is assumed to have a non-linear response to sea level rise and hence will be studied with a numerical model of the river forced by winds. Frequency and strength of storms over the region near the river will be studied, both with historical data and with a high-resolution atmospheric regional model. Coastal dynamics will be considered in all cases. Present social indicators of vulnerability to floods require further refinement to assess more precisely the direct population involved. After this step and according to physical impact projections, future social and economic impacts will be estimated. The methods and criteria for identifying and evaluating adaptation options will consider the involvement of stakeholders in their definition to assure that the analysis of adaptation is pragmatic and relevant to vulnerable populations.

Activities between this study and the other AIACC-funded Rio de lat Plata study are complementary; collaboration will be promoted via data sharing, training, and coordination workshops.

Countries and sectors: Argentina and Uruguay. Coastal zones and sea level rise.