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Rural Households and Drought in the Sahel Region of West Africa: Vulnerability and Effective Mitigation Measures (A. A. Adepetu, Center for Environmental Resources and Hazards Research, Department of Geography and Planning, University of Jos, Nigeria)


The objective of this study is to identify the groups most vulnerable to climate variability and change, and understand the nature of this vulnerability in relation to adaptive capacity. A number of villages and communities in Nigeria and Mali will be selected for inclusion in the project and will be stratified into levels of drought severity based on existing indices and stakeholder consultation. Combining climate data from historical and baseline records, and non-climate data that will be obtained through stakeholder consultations using ethnographic and participatory research, the study will build an impact model for the study region. A guided sensitivity analysis will be carried out on the impact model by applying incremental scenarios based on changes to the key climatic variables as produced by GCMs, which contribute to the impact model. Impact thresholds will be established, first with stakeholders, after which a quantitative measure would be derived for ease of comparison across regions. A risk analysis will then be performed to calculate the risk of exceeding given impact thresholds for various groups. Finally, the actual and potential coping/adaptation strategies of the people will be evaluated. These results will be communicated to stakeholders via workshops, reports and peer-reviewed publications. The study will be gender sensitive, as the various groups will be further disaggregated by sex in the model.

Countries and sectors: Nigeria and Mali. Agriculture, extremes (drought).