Assessing Global Change Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Strategies for Estuarine Waters of the Rio de la Plata (Gustavo Nagy, Department of Ecology (Division of Oceanography), Uruguayan State University, Uruguay)

The Rio de la Plata basin and estuary have been substantially influenced by human activities in recent decades, and are highly sensitive to climate extremes and changing precipitation patterns caused by climate change and variability. This project will develop regional hydroclimatic scenarios and assess impacts and vulnerability to climate change and variability in socioeconomic and environmental sectors for the Rio de la Plata. The study will include the development of reference projections (5-30 years) for a range of climate and non-climate factors to understand ecosystem response and obtain credible estimates of future impacts on salinity, nutrient-pollution, net ecosystem metabolism, fisheries resources, and aquatic biodiversity. Research will address a number of crosscutting factors important for assessing vulnerability, including changes in baseline socioeconomic conditions and assessment of adaptation costs. In order to orient scientific efforts toward effective management or policy decisions at the regional or national level, the project will lay the framework for an Adaptation Control Information System, which provides information and recommendations for developing anticipatory adaptation measures. The project team will identify, in consultation with other scientists and policy makers, which policies are most in need of immediate implementation, and analyze the costs and benefits of alternative adaptation strategies and current practices.

Activities between this study and the other AIACC-funded Rio de lat Plata study are complementary; collaboration will be promoted via data sharing, training, and coordination workshops.

Countries and sectors: Argentina and Uruguay. Water resources, coastal zone, and estuarine ecosystems.