Development of Regional Climate Change Scenarios for Sub-Saharan Africa (Bruce Hewitson, Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, South Africa)

Africa is one of the regions most vulnerable to climate change, is likely the most under-resourced continent for climate change research, and a region where the climate dynamics are still poorly understood. In response this project seeks to address these needs through the development of regional scenarios from GCM climate change simulations. A primary component of this work will be to extend existing capacity among African scientists in issues of method and implementation for regional scenario construction. The scenarios will be focused on spatial and temporal scales appropriate to the primary vulnerability sectors in Africa, and incorporate computationally efficient empirical downscaling and the more demanding regional climate models -- both of which have been identified in the IPCC 2001 Third Assessment Report as having equal skill with respective advantages in different impact sectors. Substantial capacity has already been developed at the host institution and through a number of activities undertaken in regional capacity development. This capacity is supplemented by strong international links with all phases of scenario development. The project will provide an extension to these capacity building initiatives, and provide for the first time a comprehensive scenario base for IPCC and related impacts activities in Africa.

Countries and sectors: Sub-Sahara Africa. Regional scenarios.