Integrated Assessment of Social Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change Among Farmers in Mexico and Argentina (Carlos Gay, Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Autonomous National University of Mexico, Mexico)

This project will examine how farmers in Mexico and Argentina are adapting to multiple uncertainties originated, on the one hand, from an increased frequency of extreme climatic events, and, on the other, from dramatic socioeconomic changes associated with the embrace of neo-liberalism in the Americas. This project will address two principal questions: 1) To what degree is adaptation to climate change at the regional or farm level constrained and/or facilitated by current trends in institutional change and water and agricultural policy? and 2) How can new climate change and variability research be better integrated into practices and policies to assist agricultural adaptation? These questions are particularly pertinent to Mexico and Argentina, where climate events have had important implications for economic productivity and where dramatic water and agricultural policy shifts have occurred. The project will address these research questions through: 1) A rigorous development of new climate scenarios and variability analyses, specifically scaled to selected regions where key food and economic commodities are being produced, 2) An investigation of policy change, scientific information use and natural resource allocation in agriculture and water sectors, 3) Detailed ethnographies of selected commercial farming to determine how changes in water and agricultural sector policy are affecting farmers’ current adaptive capacities, and 4) A continual dialogue with key stakeholders in order to guide the research focus as it evolves and ultimately to develop concrete recommendations for improving adaptive capacity.

Countries and sectors: Mexico and Argentina. Agriculture and water.