Capacity Building to Evaluate and Adapt to Climate Change-Induced Vulnerability to Malaria and Cholera in the Lake Victoria Region (Shem Wandiga, National Academy of Sciences, Kenya)

The focus of this study is to improve the understanding of the relationship between climate change parameters (precipitation and temperature) and the incidences of malaria and cholera in the Lake Victoria region (Kenya, Uganda and Tanzania). The study will start with characterization of baseline temperature and precipitation variability and apply existing climate models and scenarios to estimate possible perturbations to these conditions. GIS layers will be constructed using historical climate and disease data and used to select pilot study sites. Time series analyses will be used to correlate the relationship between climate and disease incidences. In order to assess vulnerability of pilot groups, the teams will use participatory methodologies and socio-economic analysis tools, including retrospective and prospective data analysis to estimate the excess risk of malaria and cholera that may be attributable to future climate change. The study team will identify priority risk groups based on exposure potential, work with pilot populations (representative of priority risk groups) to distinguish risk management strategies and select preferred options to inform policy. From the experiences gained the project will implement preferred adaptation strategies to strengthen local coping capacity and monitor performance. The study will incorporate capacity building in global change research in all its activities, by engaging stakeholders and scientists in the region.

Countries and sectors: Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania; Human health (disease)