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Round 4

Only 60% of Atlantic tropical storms originate from wave disturbances called African Easterly Waves (AEW) over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. However 85% of the major (or intense) hurricanes have their origins as AEW. Mr. Moctar Camara (University of Dakar, Senegal) is using numerical modeling systems to learn how to build early warning tools to identify potentially intense hurricanes. The models will consider upper atmospheric conditions and how those conditions are affected during wet seasons, as compared to drought seasons in the Sahel.

Elephants eat both woody vegetation and grasses. In natural settings, elephants are believed to alter habitat by converting woodlands to grassland. In Kruger National Park, it is feared that elephants will cause complete decimation of the Park's woody vegetation, which is already under stress due to climate variability and change. Ms. Jacqui Codron (University of Capetown, South Africa) is analyzing ivory core samples from six individual elephants that lived from the 1920's to the 1980's. Her data will be correlated with known climatological and human land management practices in an effort to predict future elephant-plant interactions and their impact on biodiversity as a result of current and pending management policies.

Desertification occurs in semi-arid regions due to long-term droughts, or from human mismanagement of land. Mr. Kai Collins (University of Pretoria, South Africa) is observing populations of the critically-endangered riverine rabbit, which is dependent on biotic communities adjacent to seasonally dry rivers in the semi-desert Karoo region. Riverine vegetation acts as a trap for nutrient-rich topsoil during times of heavy rainfall. During extreme drought, or when adjacent areas are overgrazed, the riverine environment provides a propagation area for seed production and regeneration of the grasses and smaller plants that will re-colonize adjacent areas. The findings of this study will provide information for the development of a conservation action management plan for riverine ecosystems that also face additional stresses brought about by climate variability and change.

Drought conditions were prevalent in West Africa during the last three decades of the 20th Century. Mr. Samo Diatta (Laboratoire Physique de'l Atmosphère et de l'Océan, Senegal) is studying the water cycles on the African continent through surface and upper air observations using precipitation radar data from the satellite Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission. For the past two decades, space-borne platforms have been the primary tool for estimating rain in Africa. However satellite rainfall predictions are often higher than actual measurements of rain in surface-based rain gauges. This study will contribute to a better understanding of the physics of cloud systems and will augment West African expertise for the prediction and measurement of precipitation.

Disasters triggered by climate variability can erode financial resources. Ms. Smangele Mgquba (University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa) is conducting surveys to gain information on how planning for adaptation to climate change can be integrated into sustainable development planning and poverty reduction. She will analyze current and past climate data for drought occurrences over the past 15 years in Eastern Cape Province and document adaptation options such as using different types of farming systems under different combinations of stresses. The intention is to uncover benefits of embedding adaptive measures within development initiatives.

Variations in inter-annual climate in Southern Africa can be attributed to the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mr. Joseph Kanyanga of Zambia (studying at University of Johannesburg, South Africa) is investigating the movement of smoke from the burning of agricultural biomass. Using satellite data from 1974 to 2004, he will document the movement of the “River of Smoke” and associated aerosol gases as impacted by ENSO. He will focus on the atmosphere-biosphere interactions over Southern Africa for the transport of transboundary air pollution and the impact of the smoke on cloudiness and radiation balances and their global climate implications.

Propagated westward by the African Easterly Waves, northern summer time squall lines (mesoscale convective systems) produce rainfall that sometimes develop into cyclonic storm systems after they cross the Atlantic coast rather than over land. Mr. Boubacar Sanghare (Laboratoire Physique de'l Atmosphère et de l'Océan, Senegal) is studying the influence of the African waves on variability of rainfall in the Sahel. He will use re-analysis data from Meteostat, the European Stationary satellite to assess the number of African Easterly Waves and their associated squall lines over the period from 1989 to 2003 as a way to improve predictions of precipitation variability over Western Africa.