Background
Since the UN Secretary General, Kofi Annan, in 2001 launched the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) project, thousands of experts have examined the current and future state of the world’s water resources. In the dry regions of the world, it is estimated that more than one billion people live under conditions without appreciable supplies of renewable freshwater resources. Water scarcity is endemic to these regions and current trends show a worsening situation, especially in Africa.

Africa Water Crisis
There is a growing concern that Africa is facing severe water crises. Many parts of the continent already face considerable stress, where demand is outstripping supply. The situation in the Sudano-Sahelian region, Southern Africa and Mediterranean Africa are future indicators where population growth will lead to double consumption. Furthermore, pollution and climate change will significantly impact hydrological systems. The population increase also means that more people will feel immediate impacts from floods, droughts, soil erosion and other natural hazards, which in turn are likely to intensify due to continued land use changes, resulting especially from urban growth. The hydrological impacts from climate change will affect agriculture, forestry, fisheries, power generation, erosion control, and sedimentation. Half of Africa’s reservoir capacity, for instance, could be lost to siltation.

Rationale and Objective
In February 2003, UNEP and START launched the project “Vulnerability assessment of water resources to environmental change in Africa” to address the vulnerability issue of physiographic, socio-economic and management related changes. The assessment focused on river, lake and aquifer basins, and was carried out in the context of the recent World Summit on Sustainable Development (UN, 2002), where the international community made a renewed commitment to sustainable development as outlined in the Rio-Declaration (UN, 1992) and the advancement of the Millennium Development Goals (UN, 2000). These writings acknowledge that sustainable development in Africa can only be achieved by addressing peace, security and development concerns, including issues related to the environment, human rights and good governance. This overlaps with efforts in formulating “a program of action for Africa’s re-development” through the NEPAD initiative.

Links to GWSP Framework
The Global Water System Project (GWSP) of the Earth System Science Partnership (comprising IGBP, WCRP. IHDP and DIVERSITAS) provides a scientific framework and implementation strategies for assessing how humans are changing the global water cycle, the associated biogeochemical cycle, and the biological components of the global water system in addition to the socioeconomic feedback arising from these changes. The vulnerability assessment of water resources to environmental change in Africa is covered in theme 1: Magnitudes and Mechanism of Change. The project examines the magnitudes of anthropogenic and environmental changes in the regional water system and studies their underlying mechanisms, including the following:
- Water Governance
- Land Cover Changes
- Climate Change
- Climate Variability
- Nutrient and Sediment Transport, etc.

Rapid Assessment
The first phase of the project, which was completed in March 2004, adopted a ‘rapid assessment approach’ and provided a summarised overview of four sub-regions (Southern, Eastern, Western and Northern Africa) including an inventory of sources of data and information. Key issues of vulnerability of water resources to environmental change and adaptation and mitigation options emanated from these assessments. The assessments showed that water resources in Africa are at risk, currently and even more so in the near future.

Detailed Assessment
This preparatory phase of a comprehensive assessment will be conducted, under the auspices of UNEP and START, by African water experts from South, East, Central, West and North Africa, and will provide the foundation for a subsequent phase of the comprehensive vulnerability assessment of Africa’s river/lake/groundwater basins, to be funded under the EU-Water Facility. The scientific objective of this phase is to identify human-induced changes to the water system to understand how the system works and responds to disturbances, and how society can best adapt to rapidly-evolving new system state scenarios.

Planned Activity
The water experts will collect data and information on water governance, land use change, climate variability, water diversions and nutrient and sediment transport. They will undertake an analysis and synthesis of the data and information using the driving pressure, state, impact, response (DPSIR) framework, integrating social, economic and environmental issues and discuss the state in relation to the policy responses. A detailed proposal for comprehensive assessment will be prepared for submission to EU Water Facility for funding.

Time Frame and Expected Outcomes:
The time frame for the preparatory phase of comprehensive assessment of African river/lake/groundwater basins is six months and will involve the following activities:

• Establishing a framework for comprehensive assessments of river/lake/groundwater basins (including evaluation/adaptation of DPSIR, GIWA and other alternative approaches and design of a framework for stakeholders involvement).
• Developing guidelines and protocols for comprehensive assessment of river/lake/groundwater basins.
• Producing outline project document/proposal for comprehensive assessments (including time frame and budget).

Project Coordination
UNEP-DEWA (Salif Diop) and the Pan African START Secretariat (Eric Odada) will provide overall project co-ordination, administration and liaison with project management and other sub-regional teams. The sub-regional teams that will carry out the assessment will be led by Allali Abdelkader (Maghreb); Hesham A. Ghany (North Africa); Lekan Oyebande (West Africa); Kevin Pietersen (Southern Africa) and Kassim Kulindwa (East Africa).

For more information, contact:
Eric Odada, Director
Pan African START Secretariat (PASS)
University of Nairobi, Department of Geology
Chiromo Campus, Riverside Drive
P O Box 30197, Nairobi, Kenya
Tel/Fax : +254-20-444-7740
Email: pass@uonbi.ac.ke

Salif Diop, Professor
Senior Environmental Affairs Officer
Chief, Water Unit
Division of Early Warning and Assessment (DEWA)
United Nations Environment Programme
P.O.Box 30552 - Nairobi, 00100 Kenya
Tel: +254-20-622015
Fax: +254-20-622798
Email: salif.diop@unep.org
URL: http://www.unep.org/dewa/water

Or:
Patricia Sipher
Email: psipher@agu.org